Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Over |
| Money | STMN +350 SDST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +15 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -3.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -2.9 (-12.1) | 159.4 (+9.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.5 (-10.5) | 163.2 (+5.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -4.8 (-10.2) | 163.6 (+5.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -3.8 (-11.2) | 161.5 (+7.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 18-0 |
| Home | 5-8 | 14-0 |
| Away | 3-12 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#191) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#266) | 1.27 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#242) | 1.31 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#248) | 0.568 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 43.1% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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