Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -3.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -5.4 (+12.4) | 128.7 (+2.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.5 (+10.5) | 129.2 (+1.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -4.1 (+11.1) | 128.8 (+2.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -5.0 (+12.0) | 128.4 (+2.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#234) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#178) | 0.57 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#213) | 1.02 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#195) | 0.526 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 27.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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