Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -10.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.5 (-0.5) | 146.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -10.2 (-3.2) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -10.6 (-3.6) | 149.5 (-8.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -11.1 (-4.1) | 147.1 (-6.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 11-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#77) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#93) | 0.38 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#90) | 0.09 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#102) | 0.510 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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