Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +19 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -6.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -4.3 (+14.7) | 155.7 (+23.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -3.8 (+15.2) | 155.5 (+23.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -3.9 (+15.1) | 156.7 (+22.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -4.2 (+14.8) | 153.0 (+26.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | -2.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | 0.37 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#173) | 0.04 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#154) | 0.510 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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