Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -7.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -4.4 (-3.4) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -4.1 (-3.1) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -4.2 (-3.2) | 138.2 (-3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -4.3 (-3.3) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#318) | -13.3 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#333) | -2.54 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#325) | -3.11 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#331) | 0.389 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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