Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MER -10.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -8.7 (-0.7) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.8 (+0.2) | 147.6 (-11.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.4 (+0.6) | 148.8 (-12.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.8 (+0.2) | 149.5 (-13.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#207) | -8.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | -0.65 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#164) | -0.90 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#140) | 0.464 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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