Betting Lines
| Spread | FAMU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -1.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.1 (+3.1) | 133.3 (+4.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -3.5 (+5.5) | 136.0 (+2.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -2.5 (+4.5) | 135.3 (+2.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -3.1 (+5.1) | 134.2 (+3.8) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FAMU 86 – 78 ALCN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FAMU 66 – 58 ALCN |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FAMU 85 – 76 ALCN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FAMU 65 – 64 ALCN |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALCN 79 – 68 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#316) | -4.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#324) | -0.85 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#328) | -0.78 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#316) | 0.480 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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