Betting Lines
| Spread | FAMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +110 FAMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.6 (-8.6) | 139.6 (+24.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAMU -0.2 (-7.8) | 137.5 (+26.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.9 (-8.9) | 139.3 (+24.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.4 (-8.4) | 139.6 (+24.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FAMU 66 – 58 ALCN |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FAMU 85 – 76 ALCN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FAMU 65 – 64 ALCN |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALCN 79 – 68 FAMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALCN 76 – 67 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-18 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -16.7 (#357) | -14.1 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#321) | -1.76 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#328) | -2.20 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#339) | 0.407 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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