Betting Lines
| Spread | FAMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | FAMU -165 ALCN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FAMU -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAMU -0.5 (+8.5) | 136.8 (+24.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAMU -1.3 (+7.7) | 138.1 (+22.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.1 (+9.1) | 136.1 (+24.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAMU -0.9 (+8.1) | 138.2 (+22.8) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FAMU 86 – 78 ALCN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FAMU 66 – 58 ALCN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FAMU 65 – 64 ALCN |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALCN 79 – 68 FAMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALCN 76 – 67 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#331) | -9.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#268) | -1.42 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#282) | -1.61 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#253) | 0.442 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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