Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -11.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -10.5 (+6.5) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -9.7 (+7.3) | 142.1 (-23.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -9.5 (+7.5) | 140.6 (-21.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -9.8 (+7.2) | 138.7 (-19.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#19) | 6.6 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#43) | 1.38 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#36) | 1.79 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#49) | 0.562 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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