Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -3.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -2.9 (+6.9) | 135.4 (+14.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.1 (+7.1) | 137.1 (+12.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -3.1 (+7.1) | 137.6 (+12.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.7 (+7.7) | 136.3 (+13.7) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#141) | 8.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 1.45 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#114) | 1.94 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#85) | 0.569 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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