Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +15 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -7.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -3.9 (-18.9) | 127.7 (-24.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.3 (-20.3) | 127.4 (-24.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.6 (-19.6) | 128.5 (-25.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.7 (-19.7) | 127.4 (-24.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ISU 82 – 52 TCU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ISU 71 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ISU 73 – 72 TCU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | ISU 70 – 59 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#23) | 8.5 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#17) | 2.18 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#11) | 2.51 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#48) | 0.575 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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