Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +1 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -2.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.9 (+0.1) | 156.1 (+32.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.8 (-0.8) | 157.7 (+31.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -1.3 (-0.3) | 157.9 (+31.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.4 (-0.4) | 158.0 (+31.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2022 | JMU 71 – 63 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#202) | -0.3 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | 0.32 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#172) | 0.04 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#170) | 0.512 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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