Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +31 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -11.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -8.8 (+22.2) | 149.0 (+8.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -8.8 (+22.2) | 150.5 (+6.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -9.3 (+21.7) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -8.5 (+22.5) | 148.5 (+8.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-12 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 84.4 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#291) | -14.8 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#292) | -2.52 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#295) | -3.04 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#305) | 0.398 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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