Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -4.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -3.6 (-0.4) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -3.8 (-0.2) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.6 (-0.4) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -3.8 (-0.2) | 146.5 (+5.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#152) | 8.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#167) | 1.74 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#158) | 1.93 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#137) | 0.601 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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