Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.3 (+7.3) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.7 (+6.3) | 140.1 (-13.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.1 (+5.9) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.6 (+6.4) | 137.6 (-10.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#201) | 1.8 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#104) | 1.17 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | 1.16 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#128) | 0.546 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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