Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +42 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -8.2 (-33.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -10.4 (-31.6) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -7.3 (-34.7) | 134.6 (-0.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -7.9 (-34.1) | 135.7 (-1.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -8.9 (-33.1) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#354) | -4.9 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.64 (#358) | -1.14 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.09 (#357) | -1.22 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#354) | 0.445 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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