Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -6.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -2.9 (-8.9) | 128.2 (+13.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -3.4 (-9.4) | 130.0 (+12.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -3.6 (-9.6) | 131.1 (+10.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -3.9 (-9.9) | 130.8 (+11.2) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#160) | -2.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#198) | -0.37 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#204) | -0.46 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#147) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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