Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -10.2 (+7.8) | 135.9 (+2.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -9.4 (+8.6) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -9.9 (+8.1) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -10.6 (+7.4) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#48) | 2.0 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#67) | 0.39 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#74) | 0.55 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#76) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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