Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -4.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.1 (-6.1) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.7 (-5.7) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.0 (-6.0) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.4 (-5.4) | 142.4 (+5.6) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | -1.2 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#220) | -0.57 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#228) | -0.53 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#215) | 0.467 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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