Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | GASO -2.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.5 (-6.5) | 128.1 (+3.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -0.8 (-8.8) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -0.3 (-8.3) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.1 (-7.9) | 130.1 (+1.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#217) | -0.7 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#211) | 0.49 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#225) | 0.56 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#235) | 0.544 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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