Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -1.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -0.6 (-2.4) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -0.1 (-3.1) | 142.0 (-9.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.4 (-2.6) | 142.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -0.0 (-3.0) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HC 65 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUCK 94 – 81 HC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BUCK 86 – 82 HC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HC 73 – 59 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#346) | -12.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#352) | -2.56 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.08 (#351) | -3.07 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#355) | 0.367 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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