Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +12 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -5.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.9 (-7.1) | 144.9 (-20.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.3 (-7.7) | 150.1 (-26.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.0 (-8.0) | 149.5 (-25.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.2 (-7.8) | 149.7 (-25.7) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#271) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#177) | 0.73 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#175) | 0.80 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.545 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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