The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–33 on winners spread MAE 8.4 120 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Maryland -7.6 146.9 25% 65–81 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +8.2 146.0 78% 56–94 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +4.2 138.2 74% 67–68 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +1.6 138.8 54% 59–98 ✓
Bryant @ Merrimack -0.8 138.0 40% 79–63 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University -5.7 146.8 30% 92–85 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.2 138.3 47% 80–78 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +5.5 147.4 74% 61–64 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.2 141.8 68% 62–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -2.5 140.0 36% 64–56 ✓
Rider @ Canisius +3.7 139.6 63% 69–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +3.6 131.1 60% 74–68 ✗
Siena @ Manhattan +3.8 143.7 63% 68–75 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo +5.4 145.1 72% 51–64 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +4.0 141.1 63% 86–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada -3.1 137.6 39% 73–77 ✗
Syracuse @ Duke +11.9 158.8 86% 59–79 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -16.4 141.8 12% 85–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.1 131.0 80% 65–78 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's -2.1 158.8 37% 66–60 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -6.6 132.5 27% 63–68 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -7.9 135.7 26% 88–46 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -12.4 118.7 14% 60–41 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -4.4 146.0 31% 72–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +5.0 131.9 69% 65–68 ✓
George Washington @ Rhode Island +13.7 134.6 87% 63–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Auburn +5.0 152.4 70% 71–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +8.4 137.5 81% 74–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +3.5 131.0 63% 61–67 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -10.2 140.6 17% 68–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +4.0 141.6 71% 75–73 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -3.6 147.8 30% 78–74 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +9.0 145.8 82% 77–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +6.4 139.2 70% 42–61 ✓
Army @ Navy +9.1 134.9 80% 74–73 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Texas +6.6 127.8 74% 51–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -0.4 142.6 46% 68–65 ✓
Tulane @ UCF +6.8 142.9 75% 66–68 ✓
American University @ Loyola Maryland +9.7 134.3 85% 73–78 ✓
Southern Miss @ Middle Tennessee +15.1 136.5 89% 60–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford -0.0 138.5 50% 78–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +3.4 143.4 68% 62–64 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +3.5 149.4 68% 61–60 ✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth -2.7 143.0 35% 84–80 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +1.0 153.7 56% 61–76 ✓
Brown @ Columbia -8.3 142.3 21% 93–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -1.8 140.4 39% 72–68 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -6.3 140.1 29% 69–66 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +11.6 137.9 83% 81–77 ✗
William & Mary @ Drexel +15.6 144.5 86% 83–75 ✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan -4.9 153.5 34% 82–75 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -9.5 130.2 17% 73–53 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb -2.4 152.8 39% 73–77 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +9.1 131.9 82% 54–70 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma -3.8 135.9 35% 65–51 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -2.5 135.3 37% 68–70 ✗
Charlotte @ Rice +4.8 149.6 65% 67–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Stephen F. Austin +0.9 138.9 52% 72–58 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston -3.1 133.9 36% 56–58 ✗
Longwood @ Presbyterian -2.9 133.3 39% 71–70 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee -0.7 142.7 42% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +1.1 140.4 56% 60–67 ✓
UT Arlington @ Little Rock -2.2 140.3 44% 96–98 ✗
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -4.0 149.5 32% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern +0.3 132.3 46% 70–62 ✗
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois -4.2 169.3 32% 93–75 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +12.7 137.6 88% 62–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Loyola Chicago +8.4 146.5 79% 79–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +10.7 149.1 86% 64–68 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +8.4 146.3 81% 82–85 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina +7.9 142.5 78% 66–83 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -5.0 138.8 30% 78–75 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +4.6 128.5 65% 59–44 ✗
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.4 123.4 45% 50–55 ✗
Howard @ Morgan State -7.1 150.1 23% 91–82 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +6.6 151.0 75% 101–93 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -1.3 137.6 47% 67–73 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +10.6 139.2 84% 74–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee State +0.1 142.1 51% 61–65 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +8.6 143.4 75% 69–60 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +1.2 145.2 59% 83–76 ✗
Marshall @ Florida Atlantic +9.1 152.7 83% 60–71 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona -4.4 141.3 31% 58–48 ✓
Idaho State @ Southern Utah +14.7 141.0 90% 74–86 ✓
Lamar @ Utah Valley +17.8 136.3 89% 41–58 ✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian +4.4 142.8 73% 68–77 ✓
High Point @ Hampton +0.1 131.2 54% 64–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +11.5 145.1 87% 57–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Louisville +0.4 139.3 49% 82–70 ✗
Virginia @ NC State +0.2 133.3 46% 63–77 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania +0.2 147.4 49% 68–76 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville State +9.0 150.6 82% 71–79 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +9.3 150.1 81% 63–94 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +6.8 151.9 77% 75–73 ✗
Charleston @ James Madison +1.3 157.9 61% 94–95 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +9.9 139.1 82% 60–78 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -6.3 139.5 21% 87–58 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -12.0 130.6 14% 73–49 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +13.3 140.1 85% 77–71 ✗
Stetson @ North Alabama +5.0 134.5 65% 67–65 ✗
Richmond @ La Salle -4.5 144.9 30% 64–56 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +9.5 140.6 81% 51–68 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +0.0 144.6 48% 72–73 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +1.4 156.6 53% 87–83 ✗
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +9.7 155.6 82% 77–85 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word -4.3 142.7 30% 82–72 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T +0.8 132.3 54% 73–72 ✗
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +4.5 137.2 69% 58–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +7.4 148.8 81% 64–72 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +6.5 149.0 72% 47–60 ✓
East Carolina @ Houston +18.9 145.8 90% 36–79 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +1.0 133.4 61% 50–64 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +7.9 142.7 80% 77–84 ✓
Old Dominion @ North Texas +11.9 126.5 86% 56–69 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +10.0 135.5 80% 48–75 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa +3.6 147.9 66% 82–74 ✗
Missouri @ Alabama +15.6 152.9 89% 76–86 ✓
USC @ Utah -4.1 137.4 34% 79–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +0.5 152.7 53% 67–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +12.8 141.9 87% 51–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.