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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–23 on winners spread MAE 9.2 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Indiana -0.4 148.7 54% 65–68 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green +1.9 152.0 52% 91–66 ✗
Saint Louis @ Massachusetts -6.4 151.9 27% 85–91 ✗
SMU @ Memphis +4.9 150.4 69% 70–62 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech +1.1 141.5 58% 76–94 ✓
Belmont @ Morehead State -2.8 142.7 37% 74–83 ✗
Austin Peay @ UT Martin +3.1 142.8 60% 72–57 ✗
Marshall @ Florida International +3.4 148.4 70% 66–70 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +1.3 147.7 57% 69–78 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +12.3 131.2 85% 51–65 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -12.0 136.0 13% 73–45 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +0.3 137.0 50% 76–72 ✗
App State @ Georgia State -1.0 137.6 40% 61–60 ✓
Samford @ VMI +3.9 156.7 63% 80–99 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro -6.1 129.0 25% 72–64 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +7.2 141.3 78% 49–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +14.4 149.4 88% 74–84 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ James Madison +4.6 144.7 60% 71–70 ✗
Charleston @ Towson +10.6 149.5 81% 67–74 ✓
USC @ Colorado -0.6 139.0 55% 61–58 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -4.3 137.4 38% 46–71 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin -2.8 136.7 31% 46–71 ✗
Texas State @ Little Rock -7.7 143.5 26% 69–59 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -2.0 144.9 37% 73–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Fairfield -2.3 137.5 38% 61–58 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +0.2 158.6 60% 63–85 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +5.1 144.8 67% 69–77 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -7.9 140.1 22% 89–84 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +13.2 158.4 88% 58–69 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +12.7 152.2 86% 56–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +4.2 135.6 63% 88–84 ✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian +4.1 144.3 67% 72–62 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ UIC +5.1 139.3 65% 74–70 ✗
Oakland @ Milwaukee -10.1 143.0 18% 78–88 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay -5.7 138.9 24% 63–70 ✗
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State +4.0 139.7 66% 70–75 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana +0.3 146.1 47% 77–70 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +20.9 157.3 91% 76–80 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas -4.8 163.6 29% 92–77 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +0.1 135.7 48% 77–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +3.1 137.8 53% 68–65 ✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.7 148.5 80% 56–60 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans +2.4 152.6 63% 72–78 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Murray State +32.8 131.9 91% 51–91 ✓
UConn @ Butler -11.1 136.3 16% 75–56 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +1.2 135.8 50% 62–59 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -4.1 128.8 30% 62–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Cincinnati +9.2 136.2 78% 69–90 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +13.3 135.9 88% 64–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +14.9 137.0 89% 63–95 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -4.9 160.4 33% 87–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +5.9 143.2 72% 62–75 ✓
Lamar @ Utah Tech +6.5 145.4 63% 55–71 ✓
San Diego @ BYU +13.2 139.7 86% 71–79 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +6.7 140.1 75% 65–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +5.6 131.3 69% 65–63 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +2.4 142.8 62% 87–69 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -2.0 135.5 40% 64–47 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.6 131.1 44% 63–59 ✓
Montana @ Portland State -2.5 138.2 36% 66–64 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +13.1 158.0 85% 62–78 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford -10.9 149.1 17% 85–57 ✓
UCLA @ Utah -6.3 146.5 27% 63–58 ✓
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +9.1 144.6 83% 80–85 ✓
Washington @ Oregon State +1.3 145.5 55% 82–72 ✗
Toledo @ Ohio +3.5 144.8 60% 87–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.