I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–38 on winners spread MAE 9.5 121 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Long Island University @ Stonehill +4.5 132.5 61% 70–60 ✗
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +17.0 143.8 88% 59–80 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis +1.5 134.2 58% 59–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +0.4 152.9 48% 91–86 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +10.5 125.9 77% 62–57 ✗
Siena @ Quinnipiac +3.9 140.1 66% 53–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +0.8 150.3 46% 75–66 ✗
Rider @ Canisius -2.1 139.1 33% 67–85 ✗
Iona @ Fairfield +0.8 139.4 48% 64–68 ✓
UCLA @ Maryland +6.1 142.6 76% 61–79 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +6.1 149.0 73% 67–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Duke +18.9 137.0 90% 78–86 ✓
USC @ Illinois +16.0 154.5 88% 82–72 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +6.0 149.9 66% 82–78 ✗
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +12.8 139.3 87% 83–82 ✗
Brown @ Yale +11.6 143.5 86% 58–79 ✓
Creighton @ Butler +0.8 140.6 50% 80–76 ✗
Auburn @ South Carolina -14.7 145.5 17% 66–63 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +0.6 164.7 48% 84–79 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +1.8 144.6 65% 48–62 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +2.1 135.7 60% 65–82 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +12.5 141.5 88% 62–70 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire -6.1 136.2 31% 72–79 ✗
James Madison @ App State +0.7 132.1 56% 66–86 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -6.9 151.7 24% 73–84 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra -0.2 132.1 47% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +15.3 147.4 90% 70–108 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +1.9 149.3 46% 85–84 ✗
UConn @ Georgetown -1.0 140.9 42% 68–60 ✓
Kansas @ Cincinnati -1.8 130.6 34% 54–40 ✓
East Carolina @ Memphis +14.6 147.5 87% 70–74 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -7.2 144.2 28% 80–67 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +0.9 147.3 51% 96–87 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +1.7 153.8 62% 76–95 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +9.3 133.6 83% 67–75 ✓
BYU @ TCU +0.5 135.6 63% 67–71 ✓
Temple @ Rice +1.0 139.5 57% 73–70 ✗
South Florida @ Tulane +3.1 149.7 70% 70–73 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +6.8 146.5 77% 57–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +13.1 138.7 86% 70–77 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +11.8 145.1 86% 64–74 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +2.1 127.4 58% 50–87 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +3.7 145.9 68% 74–69 ✗
Cornell @ Columbia +2.9 157.6 58% 94–83 ✗
Princeton @ Harvard -4.6 139.8 36% 68–64 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +5.3 144.1 78% 70–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +2.3 142.0 65% 66–87 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +3.0 136.9 51% 80–72 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +12.3 160.2 85% 78–81 ✓
Towson @ Drexel +3.5 128.5 54% 93–82 ✗
Delaware @ Hampton +1.5 148.4 62% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast +12.1 144.3 84% 71–77 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -2.9 150.2 42% 80–87 ✗
Bowling Green @ Ball State +5.1 149.6 70% 69–91 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College +0.8 151.0 55% 79–71 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +6.1 144.0 72% 57–93 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +1.4 148.7 51% 61–60 ✗
San José State @ Air Force -4.7 134.2 30% 69–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +17.0 133.0 89% 71–63 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss -3.6 143.2 34% 88–92 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver -12.9 153.3 17% 69–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +4.4 155.7 72% 69–85 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri +5.0 154.0 69% 66–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +9.9 147.3 82% 71–91 ✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -4.2 151.5 32% 105–81 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +5.3 150.4 66% 74–81 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas -2.1 148.7 39% 71–63 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +5.2 140.5 71% 62–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UTSA -3.4 157.0 43% 75–88 ✗
Georgia Tech @ SMU +11.3 154.1 85% 71–93 ✓
Virginia @ Stanford +5.4 130.4 68% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -3.3 154.5 36% 63–61 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +9.0 162.4 84% 95–100 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +9.3 145.9 84% 69–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +8.5 147.0 80% 76–75 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +6.4 146.8 75% 47–58 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +1.4 136.4 52% 58–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +4.0 144.3 74% 52–62 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +3.4 136.9 66% 53–73 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul -2.4 151.6 39% 77–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -4.1 132.4 34% 65–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +7.3 146.5 79% 69–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +0.5 136.7 55% 74–79 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +11.6 145.9 88% 59–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -7.3 133.2 23% 95–86 ✓
North Alabama @ Stetson -9.3 148.2 19% 92–64 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +0.5 143.3 46% 82–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +4.7 138.0 71% 69–75 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +17.2 138.7 90% 52–70 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +15.9 134.2 91% 69–92 ✓
Alabama State @ Jackson State -0.2 148.0 48% 70–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.0 153.6 71% 74–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -2.0 134.5 45% 76–81 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +1.1 140.0 56% 84–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +3.4 146.0 61% 72–52 ✗
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.3 134.4 45% 81–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.9 137.5 73% 67–56 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +4.7 142.5 61% 74–75 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +13.6 139.7 87% 71–80 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +1.7 143.2 61% 63–75 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +10.0 133.6 80% 85–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Lipscomb +18.4 141.8 89% 67–86 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -0.6 141.6 42% 67–60 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +4.9 135.8 71% 84–73 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +3.1 133.1 66% 59–67 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami -2.1 140.8 35% 88–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling -3.9 134.1 33% 65–59 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas -4.1 136.6 32% 74–70 ✓
Houston @ Kansas State -15.8 129.9 13% 87–57 ✓
Oklahoma @ Georgia +7.3 146.2 74% 62–72 ✓
LSU @ Ole Miss +8.3 145.9 83% 65–77 ✓
Virginia Tech @ California +6.7 143.9 75% 71–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Richmond -5.5 142.6 31% 67–64 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +13.6 122.9 86% 40–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +10.3 141.0 86% 57–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +0.5 158.8 50% 81–57 ✗
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans -5.4 141.6 26% 91–71 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +2.1 132.4 60% 68–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +5.5 149.1 71% 69–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee +4.1 147.5 68% 64–81 ✓
North Florida @ Bellarmine -7.1 158.0 26% 98–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.