If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 8.1 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Central Arkansas @ Stetson +0.4 150.2 52% 65–75 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -6.5 144.3 23% 87–64 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire -9.4 141.9 18% 61–57 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall +0.6 138.1 52% 78–80 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +6.2 134.8 76% 74–73 ✗
Oakland @ Wright State +5.0 140.4 69% 62–66 ✓
Charleston @ Hofstra -0.3 142.8 41% 67–61 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Monmouth -4.0 144.5 35% 64–55 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton +5.9 138.2 70% 66–55 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +0.0 148.2 50% 65–78 ✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -2.5 157.9 47% 98–88 ✓
Drexel @ Stony Brook -6.0 130.6 27% 67–51 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +0.7 131.0 52% 73–80 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.0 144.6 57% 70–75 ✓
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +4.7 164.5 75% 74–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee +7.4 149.6 79% 79–84 ✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +5.3 137.8 70% 64–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ Louisiana +3.7 143.2 67% 71–60 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +4.9 142.3 67% 67–84 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +15.2 146.2 88% 75–73 ✗
West Georgia @ Austin Peay +4.8 135.5 52% 72–68 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley +0.6 144.8 44% 64–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -12.0 151.8 20% 110–96 ✓
VMI @ Samford +13.8 155.0 86% 68–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +4.0 151.2 68% 73–67 ✗
Washington @ Michigan State +12.8 145.7 86% 54–88 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +3.5 137.6 70% 62–76 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah +8.7 135.6 76% 74–66 ✗
UT Martin @ Western Illinois +0.4 133.8 48% 85–83 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +6.7 141.0 76% 66–77 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +2.8 147.9 62% 62–72 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois -0.7 141.9 46% 69–64 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +5.5 151.7 74% 76–81 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State -0.8 153.2 45% 83–82 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis +8.1 136.0 76% 53–63 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -1.8 152.1 48% 62–74 ✗
North Dakota @ Denver +1.0 154.5 53% 95–70 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston -6.0 143.7 28% 76–68 ✓
Pacific @ Washington State +16.9 150.1 89% 95–94 ✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State -3.7 132.0 38% 80–67 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +2.5 145.9 62% 59–64 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +18.1 155.4 89% 68–95 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +3.5 135.7 68% 83–76 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +5.3 132.6 70% 66–78 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -0.5 149.8 58% 77–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Santa Clara +4.0 146.5 70% 81–82 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +18.9 149.5 91% 72–81 ✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart +0.3 137.8 46% 66–65 ✗
Kent State @ Buffalo -10.5 138.5 15% 68–49 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +0.9 128.8 50% 60–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.