Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +165 DEL -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +10 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | DEL -2.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -2.5 (-7.5) | 157.9 (+28.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -3.4 (-6.6) | 160.3 (+25.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -2.6 (-7.4) | 156.8 (+29.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -2.0 (-8.0) | 156.2 (+29.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEL 62 – 54 NCAT |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEL 90 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2023 | DEL 73 – 71 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 16-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#318) | -2.7 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#340) | -0.74 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#338) | -0.87 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#330) | 0.448 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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