Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +130 DEL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | DEL -0.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.5 (-1.5) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -1.6 (-0.4) | 143.8 (+0.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -1.2 (-0.8) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -0.9 (-1.1) | 145.9 (-1.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2025 | DEL 98 – 88 NCAT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEL 62 – 54 NCAT |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEL 90 – 71 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#309) | -3.8 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#269) | -0.41 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#284) | -0.44 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#249) | 0.478 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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