Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -155 HAW +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +7 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -4.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.5 (-10.5) | 135.7 (+23.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.0 (-9.0) | 137.4 (+21.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -3.0 (-10.0) | 137.5 (+21.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -2.9 (-9.9) | 137.6 (+21.4) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 14, 2024 | HAW 63 – 56 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-7 |
| Away | 7-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#170) | -1.0 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#77) | -0.29 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#109) | -0.26 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#71) | 0.459 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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