Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +100 HAW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -0.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -0.2 (-3.2) | 139.5 (+9.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.5 (-3.5) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.2 (-3.2) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.2 (-2.8) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Jan 14, 2024 | HAW 63 – 56 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#222) | -0.12 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#218) | -0.13 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#222) | 0.477 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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