Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -1000 UCR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -14.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -11.9 (+7.1) | 145.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -9.8 (+9.2) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -11.5 (+7.5) | 143.6 (+23.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -11.1 (+7.9) | 145.1 (+21.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 14, 2024 | HAW 63 – 56 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 16-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#106) | -6.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#99) | -1.14 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#109) | -1.15 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#126) | 0.457 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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