Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | HAW -305 UCR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -8.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.5 (+1.5) | 134.3 (-15.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -5.4 (+1.6) | 133.7 (-14.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.6 (+1.4) | 132.4 (-13.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -5.4 (+1.6) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | -4.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#203) | -1.02 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#202) | -1.02 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#217) | 0.448 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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