Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1800 WASH +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +34 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -14.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -12.7 (+21.3) | 145.8 (-3.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.2 (+20.8) | 144.5 (-2.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -12.6 (+21.4) | 144.5 (-2.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.8 (+21.2) | 145.7 (-3.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSU 80 – 63 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-9 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#21) | 5.7 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#16) | 1.06 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#19) | 1.40 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#21) | 0.528 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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