Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -125 UNA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -3.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -2.0 (+3.0) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -1.7 (+3.3) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -1.7 (+3.3) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.6 (+3.4) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FGCU 69 – 58 UNA |
| Jan 30, 2026 | FGCU 72 – 64 UNA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | FGCU 72 – 55 UNA |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UNA 70 – 69 FGCU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | UNA 87 – 85 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 1.3 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#188) | 0.01 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#195) | 0.07 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#157) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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