Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
91–36 on winners spread MAE 8.2 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb -12.4 154.1 13% 65–67 ✗
High Point @ Radford -11.6 172.5 14% 93–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Longwood -1.8 161.1 44% 79–81 ✗
Massachusetts @ Buffalo +3.7 160.9 63% 68–67 ✗
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +0.3 148.8 51% 60–81 ✓
Long Island University @ Stonehill -6.6 141.8 27% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +7.0 155.3 74% 67–69 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +9.6 143.9 81% 76–66 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +20.0 141.6 97% 55–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -5.3 134.2 32% 58–75 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +5.1 145.1 68% 70–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +18.8 167.5 96% 62–74 ✓
Marquette @ Butler +12.5 163.5 87% 76–87 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -10.9 174.6 16% 86–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana +7.0 135.3 74% 64–96 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State -5.3 152.6 31% 65–61 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford -3.6 163.1 37% 77–80 ✗
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +12.0 146.4 86% 63–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida -1.7 171.6 44% 114–117 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +19.5 151.0 96% 69–90 ✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota -8.4 136.0 22% 76–57 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +21.7 138.6 98% 48–91 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +7.8 152.5 76% 85–80 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State -10.5 164.0 17% 88–56 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -10.0 143.4 18% 77–63 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross -3.7 139.8 37% 76–67 ✓
NC State @ Pittsburgh -8.4 151.2 22% 81–72 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +5.2 132.0 68% 53–63 ✓
Niagara @ Sacred Heart +10.4 141.8 83% 70–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -4.5 134.1 34% 75–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +2.2 163.6 58% 70–80 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -4.0 135.2 36% 73–80 ✗
Monmouth @ Campbell +3.6 150.4 63% 88–73 ✗
Hofstra @ William & Mary +2.6 159.0 60% 82–89 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +7.6 134.8 76% 67–75 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +8.7 175.8 79% 81–78 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +3.9 139.1 64% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ Texas -1.1 176.2 46% 67–87 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +0.7 153.8 52% 76–62 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +3.6 150.2 63% 69–80 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -13.0 146.8 12% 70–64 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +5.5 153.2 69% 80–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +5.3 151.0 68% 65–64 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +5.2 149.0 68% 71–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Marist +5.4 136.0 69% 64–71 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant -7.2 138.5 26% 62–52 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +6.6 153.1 73% 56–79 ✓
Texas State @ James Madison +5.6 146.2 69% 57–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina +2.0 145.4 57% 67–85 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +8.6 162.1 78% 69–92 ✓
Delaware @ Liberty +15.9 138.5 93% 51–67 ✓
St. John's @ Xavier -8.8 159.8 21% 88–83 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +17.7 144.7 95% 76–103 ✓
Army @ Navy +13.1 148.5 88% 56–84 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina +11.3 155.5 85% 58–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona +15.5 143.5 92% 53–88 ✓
Houston @ Texas Tech -0.7 140.0 47% 86–90 ✗
Morgan State @ Howard +17.1 148.3 94% 78–77 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -1.2 134.1 46% 65–74 ✗
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago -9.2 161.9 20% 71–59 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -6.5 141.1 28% 74–81 ✗
Boston University @ Colgate +9.1 155.5 80% 79–80 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -5.7 144.1 30% 82–72 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse -2.1 150.5 43% 85–76 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland +3.4 146.6 62% 62–67 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -0.8 156.5 47% 79–69 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -7.3 165.7 25% 90–78 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +3.2 136.3 61% 53–58 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard +3.7 169.5 63% 86–79 ✗
Yale @ Pennsylvania -6.4 160.8 28% 77–60 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +7.9 128.3 76% 63–79 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +2.1 138.9 57% 72–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +5.0 145.2 68% 78–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +4.2 150.6 65% 64–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State -4.9 154.5 33% 81–82 ✗
Oklahoma @ Missouri +2.9 155.4 60% 87–88 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +7.9 158.7 76% 81–78 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +8.2 160.6 77% 58–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville +14.3 164.0 90% 71–85 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana -0.0 143.4 50% 61–67 ✗
Queens University @ West Georgia -7.6 167.8 25% 66–74 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +9.1 136.1 80% 58–62 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +2.8 150.9 60% 88–82 ✗
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -11.6 164.7 15% 84–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington +9.2 162.8 80% 69–85 ✓
UCF @ Colorado -0.3 164.6 49% 95–86 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Merrimack +3.0 131.5 61% 59–67 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -8.7 148.0 22% 86–58 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -6.9 171.6 26% 95–87 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern -6.6 172.6 27% 83–78 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +0.3 143.4 51% 76–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -0.8 146.4 47% 74–89 ✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan +1.7 159.0 56% 76–75 ✗
New Orleans @ McNeese +16.6 160.8 93% 63–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +4.2 160.2 65% 96–86 ✗
Auburn @ Florida +9.4 162.9 80% 76–67 ✗
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +1.1 141.8 54% 76–81 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +14.5 147.0 91% 62–66 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State +4.8 144.2 67% 59–74 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +11.5 159.5 85% 48–85 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -4.6 159.2 34% 82–71 ✓
Florida State @ SMU +14.8 169.4 91% 80–83 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +24.5 133.7 99% 54–96 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +6.6 166.8 73% 93–86 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +9.4 137.5 80% 61–71 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -6.4 133.8 28% 88–81 ✓
Missouri State @ UTEP -2.0 137.8 43% 62–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Rice -14.4 156.3 9% 87–81 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -0.4 131.6 48% 79–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -3.3 142.2 38% 68–51 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +9.2 167.6 80% 81–85 ✓
VCU @ Davidson -5.0 150.7 33% 75–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -3.8 128.6 37% 60–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo -2.0 154.8 43% 72–73 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +11.0 153.9 84% 66–74 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho +1.7 146.4 56% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +6.7 167.6 73% 67–75 ✓
Utah @ BYU +20.1 166.3 97% 78–91 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +4.9 161.5 67% 95–80 ✗
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +9.8 147.6 81% 58–66 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +10.8 143.5 84% 79–95 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +2.7 155.2 60% 97–90 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +7.4 164.6 75% 75–74 ✗
Northwestern @ UCLA +5.3 144.3 68% 64–71 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +9.4 133.7 80% 64–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +9.3 150.0 80% 65–77 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +5.2 151.8 68% 60–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.