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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–8 on winners spread MAE 8.3 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lafayette @ Lehigh +4.9 150.4 67% 59–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Pacific +3.3 136.7 62% 54–56 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -3.1 152.9 39% 74–71 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield +11.6 140.6 86% 55–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +12.9 162.6 88% 57–66 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly -0.6 175.4 48% 93–78 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Fresno State -1.5 134.9 45% 68–57 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +23.4 150.7 98% 66–68 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -8.1 158.8 23% 86–62 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +4.4 147.8 66% 85–70 ✗
Nevada @ New Mexico +6.2 150.1 71% 73–80 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -14.3 146.6 10% 75–69 ✓
California @ Stanford +2.0 145.4 57% 78–66 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City -3.3 148.8 38% 77–60 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -6.6 151.7 27% 77–81 ✗
Weber State @ Montana State +7.0 151.3 74% 88–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist -1.0 144.4 46% 71–78 ✗
Tennessee @ Alabama +4.6 167.6 66% 79–73 ✗
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech +9.6 152.2 81% 91–102 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -13.0 159.6 12% 85–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ Arizona State -0.6 147.6 48% 68–82 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +5.5 142.5 69% 61–59 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i +13.9 153.3 90% 68–89 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida +6.5 172.1 72% 75–89 ✓
Oregon @ Washington +8.7 149.0 79% 57–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst +10.0 133.5 82% 59–61 ✓
USC @ Wisconsin +7.0 167.1 74% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.