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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 9.6 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Florida @ UAB	-1.8	171.0	44%	82–69	✓
Wisconsin @ Penn State	-5.2	163.1	32%	98–71	✓
Merrimack @ Iona	+3.5	143.1	63%	60–61	✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris	+5.5	154.4	69%	76–88	✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's	-4.4	149.1	35%	77–62	✓
Niagara @ Fairfield	+13.2	141.6	89%	61–62	✓
Canisius @ Sacred Heart	+10.6	142.6	83%	66–69	✓
Marist @ Siena	-0.0	126.1	50%	50–69	✗
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary	+2.7	152.3	60%	70–77	✓
Campbell @ Charleston	+4.5	159.8	66%	83–87	✓
Towson @ Elon	+5.0	144.1	68%	72–59	✗
Monmouth @ Hampton	+0.9	134.9	53%	63–65	✓
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T	-8.9	151.8	21%	78–79	✗
Stony Brook @ Northeastern	+5.3	151.7	69%	95–80	✗
South Alabama @ James Madison	+2.3	143.1	58%	90–83	✗
Southern Miss @ Georgia State	-0.1	141.3	50%	62–69	✗
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern	-1.5	178.2	45%	85–68	✓
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	+6.2	140.9	71%	70–72	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Florida	-4.1	169.1	35%	85–87	✗
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville	+3.1	144.9	61%	77–70	✗
Western Illinois @ Morehead State	+10.4	143.1	83%	66–71	✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts	+3.8	151.8	64%	79–62	✗
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State	+9.1	149.0	80%	65–70	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+11.1	150.5	84%	68–89	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+2.2	133.8	58%	59–51	✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+6.1	155.2	71%	69–74	✓
North Dakota State @ Denver	-3.4	164.0	38%	82–77	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+7.8	165.6	76%	67–107	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Davis	-2.1	155.2	42%	80–74	✓
Weber State @ Montana	+4.2	161.1	65%	65–81	✓
Idaho State @ Montana State	+6.0	143.5	71%	62–74	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho	+10.6	159.4	83%	76–86	✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington	-1.8	157.5	43%	65–61	✓
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville	+0.8	144.6	53%	66–74	✓
Missouri State @ New Mexico State	+9.1	143.7	80%	84–75	✗
Florida International @ UTEP	-3.3	149.9	38%	77–83	✗
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton	+5.9	165.8	71%	61–71	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside	-6.9	140.6	27%	80–66	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i	+19.6	141.9	96%	71–98	✓
UL Monroe @ App State	+16.5	149.2	93%	43–59	✓
East Carolina @ North Texas	+12.4	129.1	87%	63–59	✗
Mercyhurst @ New Haven	-0.8	118.9	47%	61–57	✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay	+17.1	146.4	94%	65–73	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb	+7.4	162.8	75%	71–86	✓
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech	-3.1	144.2	39%	76–82	✗
Furman @ UNC Greensboro	-4.6	151.6	34%	89–66	✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure	-12.1	163.0	14%	97–62	✓
Indiana @ Rutgers	-10.5	147.7	17%	82–59	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.