Tire tracks all across your back - I can see you've had your fun. "Crosstown Traffic"- Jimi Hendrix
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–16 on winners spread MAE 8.1 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Illinois +23.7 150.7 98% 70–89 ✓
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +9.4 144.8 80% 69–91 ✓
Murray State @ Drake -4.7 161.5 33% 90–101 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +8.1 158.7 77% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ American University +0.6 152.3 52% 66–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Richmond +3.9 143.6 64% 69–68 ✗
Fordham @ Davidson +7.4 129.6 75% 63–68 ✓
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +14.0 154.7 90% 74–79 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +3.5 146.4 62% 87–84 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +16.4 160.1 93% 56–91 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian -1.3 144.4 45% 83–87 ✗
Georgetown @ Villanova +13.8 147.5 90% 51–66 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +8.2 152.3 77% 93–94 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -1.0 134.5 46% 62–65 ✗
Holy Cross @ Navy +10.9 132.9 84% 68–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +19.1 157.9 96% 85–79 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +0.4 157.7 51% 83–76 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +21.2 187.4 97% 103–85 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -11.8 140.9 14% 75–77 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +14.5 166.0 91% 76–88 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga -7.2 144.2 26% 67–66 ✓
Troy @ Old Dominion -5.3 160.9 32% 83–77 ✓
Texas @ Kentucky +7.6 158.0 76% 80–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University +13.7 163.9 89% 62–87 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +18.0 145.3 95% 60–77 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -1.6 153.5 44% 76–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +9.1 169.0 80% 87–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +0.5 143.1 52% 63–69 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +19.5 129.2 96% 62–81 ✓
Temple @ Rice -3.0 147.4 39% 69–65 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa +9.9 155.5 82% 66–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +5.0 166.8 68% 68–64 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +5.3 146.2 69% 64–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -15.4 155.5 8% 70–84 ✗
Cincinnati @ Arizona +17.0 146.3 94% 51–77 ✓
Washington @ Nebraska +11.2 147.6 85% 66–76 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +35.8 145.8 100% 60–84 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +6.1 124.3 71% 54–59 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +14.0 141.1 90% 74–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona State -0.7 147.6 48% 75–63 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse +1.7 154.2 56% 76–74 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +10.5 168.3 83% 68–88 ✓
Washington State @ San Diego -1.4 152.5 45% 92–96 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Seattle U +5.9 134.9 70% 59–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +7.7 141.0 76% 64–73 ✓
Oregon State @ Saint Mary's +19.3 142.7 96% 51–81 ✓
Northwestern @ USC +4.8 158.6 67% 74–68 ✗
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon -0.3 144.0 49% 69–70 ✗
UL Monroe @ Marshall +19.5 165.4 96% 60–115 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +9.6 120.3 81% 58–72 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +17.8 154.8 95% 74–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay +6.5 155.0 72% 62–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ West Georgia -5.5 153.5 31% 86–65 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell -3.4 155.5 38% 77–68 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +8.5 144.0 78% 74–87 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +12.4 137.5 87% 82–88 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine -1.7 128.9 44% 49–52 ✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +4.8 142.1 67% 81–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.