Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USC -298 NU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -4.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -6.6 (-12.6) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.6 (-12.6) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.6 (-12.6) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.6 (-12.6) | 149.4 (-7.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2025 | NU 77 – 75 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#58) | 9.0 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#26) | 0.46 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#36) | 0.71 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#31) | 0.517 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 2.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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