Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NU -135 USC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NU -4.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -4.6 (-2.6) | 142.4 (+9.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -4.0 (-2.0) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -3.4 (-1.4) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -3.7 (-1.7) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NU 74 – 68 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#55) | 9.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#76) | 1.79 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#65) | 2.44 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#98) | 0.572 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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