Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -395 MSST +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -11.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -10.6 (+9.4) | 162.3 (-6.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -9.8 (+10.2) | 157.4 (-1.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -9.8 (+10.2) | 158.0 (-2.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -10.8 (+9.2) | 159.7 (-3.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSST 70 – 54 TA&M |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TA&M 75 – 69 MSST |
| Feb 25, 2023 | MSST 69 – 62 TA&M |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 64 MSST |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MSST 63 – 57 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#36) | 6.3 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#36) | 1.05 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#47) | 1.59 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#73) | 0.529 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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