Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M +200 MSST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.9 (-3.1) | 125.3 (-5.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.5 (-2.5) | 128.3 (-8.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.1 (-2.9) | 130.0 (-10.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.0 (-1.0) | 126.7 (-6.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TA&M 88 – 68 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSST 70 – 54 TA&M |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TA&M 75 – 69 MSST |
| Feb 25, 2023 | MSST 69 – 62 TA&M |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 2-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#144) | 8.1 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#112) | 0.99 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#130) | 1.52 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#184) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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