Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -150 TA&M +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -1.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.2 (+13.8) | 135.7 (-11.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -1.4 (+14.6) | 139.0 (-15.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -1.5 (+14.5) | 140.5 (-16.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.6 (+14.4) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TA&M 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TA&M 75 – 69 MSST |
| Feb 25, 2023 | MSST 69 – 62 TA&M |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 64 MSST |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MSST 63 – 57 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#29) | 17.6 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#11) | 3.60 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#19) | 4.33 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#16) | 0.648 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 16.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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