Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -125 TA&M +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -2.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.7 (+5.3) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.8 (+6.2) | 126.8 (+4.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.0 (+5.0) | 128.4 (+2.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -1.8 (+5.2) | 129.7 (+1.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TA&M 88 – 68 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSST 70 – 54 TA&M |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TA&M 75 – 69 MSST |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 64 MSST |
| Mar 4, 2021 | MSST 63 – 57 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#46) | 11.7 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#51) | 2.18 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#52) | 2.50 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#79) | 0.586 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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