Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -600 TULN +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -14.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -11.8 (-6.8) | 146.2 (+6.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -11.8 (-6.8) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -11.4 (-6.4) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -11.6 (-6.6) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | TULN 69 – 66 FAU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | TULN 83 – 76 FAU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TULN 80 – 65 FAU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FAU 79 – 73 TULN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FAU 85 – 84 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#84) | -3.5 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#81) | 0.24 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#87) | -0.22 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#42) | 0.511 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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