Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TULN +115 FAU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -0.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -1.0 (+14.0) | 152.0 (-7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -0.2 (+14.8) | 154.5 (-9.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.0 (+14.0) | 156.3 (-11.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.8 (+14.2) | 153.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | FAU 79 – 74 TULN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | TULN 69 – 66 FAU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | TULN 83 – 76 FAU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FAU 79 – 73 TULN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FAU 85 – 84 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#159) | 4.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#244) | 0.47 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#225) | 0.91 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#271) | 0.553 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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