Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -4000 ORST +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +30 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -20.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -16.8 (+13.2) | 141.5 (-9.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SMC -16.1 (+13.9) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SMC -15.8 (+14.2) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -16.8 (+13.2) | 142.5 (-10.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | SMC 74 – 64 ORST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SMC 63 – 49 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#38) | -3.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#31) | -0.06 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#28) | -0.12 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#17) | 0.480 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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