But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Mountain West Conference · Global Credit Union Arena · January 22, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money GCU +102 / SDSU -122
Model Predictions
Spread Total GCU win
Actual GCU +1 139 Won
Massey SDSU -0.4 (+1.4)
Massey Totals 146.0 (-7.0)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 29%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -1.1 (-0.1) 144.7 (-5.7) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -0.2 (+1.2) 141.9 (-2.9) 50%
Baseline ML GCU -0.5 (+0.5) 144.3 (-5.3) 55%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -1.0 (-0.0) 144.9 (-5.9) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 18, 2026 GCU 7363 SDSU
Dec 6, 2023 GCU 7973 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GCU SDSU
Overall 20-12 22-11
Conference 13-7 14-6
Home 13-4 14-2
Away 6-5 5-5
Neutral 1-3 3-4
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 76.8
Avg Pts Against 68.7 71.3
Massey 7.1 (#90) 10.8 (#54)
Bradley-Terry 1.22 (#83) 2.29 (#39)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.67 (#82) 3.20 (#35)
RPI 0.541 (#95) 0.607 (#34)
Shooting & Four Factors GCU SDSU
FG% 44.5% 47.2%
3PT% 30.1% 37.6%
REB / G 36.2 35.9
OREB / G 11.1 10.4
AST / TO 1.07 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 53.5%
TOV% 17.5% 18.3%
ORB% 33.2% 30.7%
FT Rate 28.9% 26.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 20.6%
DRB% 73.6% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 26.9% 26.9%

Game Analysis

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