Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GCU +102 SDSU -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +1 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -1.1 (-0.1) | 144.7 (-5.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.2 (+1.2) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -0.5 (+0.5) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -1.0 (-0.0) | 144.9 (-5.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | GCU 73 – 63 SDSU |
| Dec 6, 2023 | GCU 79 – 73 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#90) | 10.8 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#83) | 2.29 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#82) | 3.20 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#95) | 0.607 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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