Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | GCU +115 SDSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -0.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -1.2 (+4.8) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.1 (+2.9) | 148.3 (+3.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.6 (+3.4) | 149.5 (+2.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.1 (+2.9) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | GCU 73 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 22, 2026 | GCU 70 – 69 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#77) | 11.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#42) | 2.64 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#37) | 3.75 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#64) | 0.650 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 39.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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